Three short quotes from Monday's WSJ. March 14, 2022. The long, detailed article's title on the online site is "Russia-Ukraine War Threatens Wheat Supply, Jolts Prices"
author Ryan Dezember
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens a big portion of the world’s wheat supply and has sent prices on a dizzying ride to new highs as well as the sharpest weekly drop in years. Wheat stockpiles were already running low and prices were the highest in years thanks to two years of poor growing weather when Russia’s attack jammed up Black Sea trading and endangered nearly a third of the world’s exports. The invasion prompted fears of food shortages in countries fed with imported grain and pushed prices to new highs."
"Analysts and traders don’t know yet the extent to which global wheat supplies will be dented by the war. What remains of last year’s crop has been kept off market due to the closure of Ukrainian ports and shippers’ hesitancy to enter a war zone to fetch Russian wheat. Meanwhile, it is unclear if growers in the region will be able to harvest winter wheat, which was planted in autumn, or plant spring crops in the coming weeks.
“In six weeks they’ll start planting in Ukraine and Russia,” said Sal Gilbertie, president of Teucrium Trading LLC, which manages the wheat fund. “If it’s disrupted that means a future reduction in supplies that the world is counting on.”
"The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday lowered its expectations for Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports during the current marketing year, which began in June, by about 12%. Some of the lost supply will be replaced by exports from Australia, where a record harvest is expected, and India, which has been ramping up shipments abroad amid a string of bumper crops, the Agriculture Department said in its monthly market forecast."